Owners of a farm with generic base acres as of September 30, 2013, and recent planting history of covered commodities, have a one-time opportunity to allocate generic base acres.

The process will be multi-step to allocate generic base acres to seed cotton base acres. Steps for implementing the allocation of seed cotton are:

1.     Determine if a covered commodity was planted on the farm during the 2009 through 2016 crop years.

2.     Identify planted and considered planted (P&CP) history of covered commodities, including upland cotton, on the farm with generic base acres.

3.     Current owner(s) of the farm allocate generic base acres to seed cotton or allocate generic base to seed cotton and other planted covered commodities as applicable.

4.     Current owner(s) of the farm updates the seed cotton yield.

5.     Current producer(s) on the farm elects the applicable program for seed cotton, unless ARC-Individual Coverage (ARC-IC) was previously elected on the farm.

6.     The producer(s) on the farm enrolls the farm.

USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) Seed Cotton Fact Sheet. Seed Cotton Base Acre Allocation, Yield Update, Election and Enrollment

USDA FSA ARC/PLC Webpage. www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc 

Seed Cotton Web-Based Decision Aid.

Seed Cotton Decision Aid. Texas A&M’s Agricultural Food Policy Center faculty, working with USDA’s Farm Service Agency staff, developed an educational tool to help landowners, producers, and others understand how the new seed cotton program may affect FSA seed cotton program payments. 

Important Links:

• AFPC The Agricultural & Food Policy Center (AFPC) Homepage click or cut and paste link https://afpc.tamu.edu/
• Direct Link Texas A&M Seed Cotton Decision Aid click or cut and paste link https://www.afpc.tamu.edu/tools/cotton-base
• Video 2018 Generic Base Decision Aid - Seed Cotton click or cut and paste link https://youtu.be/EKdsPNku_M
• Video Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 Seed Cotton Base Allocation with USDA FSA click or cut and paste link https://youtu.be/svVhZ8ZxrBY
  If you need any help with Decision Aid, call AFPC at (979) 845-591

Dr. John Robinson Cotton Video: Cotton Market and Risk Management (including insurance and policy thoughts) Outlook Video with Dr. John Robinson, Professor and Extension Economist - Cotton Marketing, Recorded November 15, 2018 Link to view: click or cut and paste https://bit.ly/2Tovd0D

 National Cotton Council on Seed Cotton Program.

• 2018 Seed Cotton Information homepage, click or cut and paste link https://bit.ly/2Hp1j74
• Fact Sheet Updated November 15, 2018. 2018 PLC / ARC-CO Examples, click or cut and paste link https://bit.ly/2DLdBHN

 Market expectations for the week of November 19, 2018  

U.S. and Global market dynamics appear to be in a very serious state of realignment, which will have significant near and longer-term market implications, and which we will be discussing in coming weeks. 

U.S. 10-Year Treasury. Yield Sideways, Range 2.70 to 3.32. Note the lower yield boundary has declined from last week’s 3.00 – Scenario No.1 U.S. 10-Year Treasury slightly lower if global equities bearish; Scenario No. 2 U.S. 10-Year Treasury slightly higher if global equities strengthen. The intermediate yield trend is sideways with a lower yield bias. (November 16, 2018 – 3.09) Charts (A1-A4)

U.S. Dollar. Corrective Pullback Then Higher - The U.S. Dollar moves sideways to down, correcting some of its upside gains against the Euro. Beyond the expected near-term correction, dollar strength could be a major headwind for U.S. exports into the middle of next year. (November 16, 2018 – 96.33) (Possible Upside 110) Charts (A5-A13)

$SPX 500. Sideways Trading Range being defined, Cautionary Times – Needs to hold above 2670 or additional price weakness becomes problematic. On the positive side, seasonality and global demand is working in favor of this market. Charts (A14-A18)

Global Equities. Sideways, Caution Period of Individual Country Selection – Near term ongoing policy discussions between the U.S. and its economic and trading partners likely limit upside potential of many of these markets. The Global Equity Index (EFA), Emerging Markets (EEM), and Frontier Markets (FM) mostly sideways over the next several weeks. The strongest and most stable index will likely be the global index, followed by the emerging market index, and the frontier index will likely be the weakest index over the next several weeks. Charts (A19-A29)

$WTIC Oil. Bearish, Bottom May Not Be In-Place - $WTIC oil prices need to hold above $54.33 or some significant downside may emerge to $48.13 or lower. Political dynamics and fundamental crosscurrents are challenging, just follow the price action. (November 16, 2018 - $56.68), Charts (B6-B9)

Soybeans. Sideways, Retesting Resistance, Defining Trading Parameters - Soybeans (November 16, 2018 - $8.92 per bushel) to-date have not been able to overcome heavy resistance. Until soybean prices hold above $9.00 per bushel, I remain more concerned about the downside to $8.12. Charts (B10-B13)

Corn. Neutral to Bearish - This market needs to end the week of November 19, 2018, above $3.64 per bushel for me to consider any additional near-term upside. (November 16, 2018 - $3.65 per bushel). Charts (B14-B17)

Wheat. Sideways to up in a Slowly Unfolding Pattern - Wheat prices need to end the week of November 19, 2018, above $5.15 per bushel to indicate a stronger bearish trend is not gaining momentum. (November 16, 2018 - $5.15 per bushel) Charts (B14-B17)

Long Grain Rice. Sideways to Up, Present Range ($10.65 to $11.04 per cwt.) – January rice holding above $10.65 per cwt. would be positive for potential additional upside price strength to $11.04. That said, global deflationary forces, coupled with fundamentals, continue to weigh heavily on this market without significant new business. (Chart B18-B20)

Cotton. Neutral, Global Deflation Forces Weighing Heavy Cotton Prices - Key consideration: If cotton can finish the week of November 19, 2018, above December 77.86 cents per pound, this market has potential to regain upside price momentum, given today’s global economic setting. Finishing the week of November 19, 2018, below 77.86 cents per pound would likely indicate additional price weakness lies ahead (November 16 – 78.29-cents per pound). Charts (B21-B24)

Livestock. Appears Correcting Upside Price Gains - Lean Hogs - Bullish, Feeder Cattle – Correcting Price Gains, and Live Cattle - Bullish.  

Gold and Silver. Neutral to Potentially Bullish - Gold and silver could find some near-term price support, especially if the dollar continues to correct its upside move.  

 Media

UA Video Dr. Thomson on New Technologies for Rice Breeding with a Focus on CRISPR Gene Editing, Dr. Michael Thomson, Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Video Link: https://www.uaex.edu/farm-ranch/economics-marketing/food-agribusiness-webinars/

Bobby Coats is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas System, Division of Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service. E-mail: recoats@uark.edu.

Download Slide Show for charts and expanded details, Click Download Link

DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES-ONLY

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue today announced the appointment of eight members, eight alternate members and two advisors to serve on the Cotton Board.  

Re-appointed members are:

• Adam S. Hatley, Mesa, Ariz.
• Rajiv Malik, Tiburon, Calif.
• George T. Warbington, Vienna, Ga.
• Sonja Chapman, Boonton, N.J.
• Crystal A. Button, Great Neck, N.Y.
• Julie Davis Holladay, Lubbock, Texas
• Randy Braden, Midland, Texas
• Jeffery T. Posey, Roby, Texas 

Re-appointed alternate members are:

• Jaclyn Dixon Ford, Alapaha, Ga.
• Douglas P. Guiley, New York, N.Y. 

Newly appointed alternate members are:

• Ava L. Alcaida, Parker, Ariz.
• Patricia R. Lesser, Kentfield, Calif.
• Charles F. Sheppard, Indian Rocks, Fla.
• Steven D. Olson, Plainview, Texas
• Jason S. French, Snyder, Texas
• Brett J. Schniers, Wall, Texas

The appointed advisors are Gregory L. Bridgeforth, Athens, Ala., and incumbent Karen E. Kyllo, Henderson, Nev.

All appointees will serve three-year terms ending Dec. 31, 2021. 

“The Cotton Board carries out research and promotional activities that help cotton compete in domestic and foreign markets, improve fiber quality and lower production costs,” said Perdue. “I want to thank these board members for the time and effort they have committed to serving the cotton industry." 

The Cotton Research and Promotion Act of 1966 (Act) authorized a national cotton research and promotion program that is both industry-operated and funded. Since 1966, Congress has authorized 22 industry-funded research and promotion boards to provide a framework for agricultural industries to pool their resources and combine efforts to develop new markets, strengthen existing markets and conduct important research and promotion activities. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) provides oversight, paid for by industry assessments, which helps ensure fiscal accountability and program integrity.

The 2018 U.S. corn and soybean harvests are nearly complete, as is planting for the 2018/19 winter wheat crop, according to the latest crop progress data from USDA. The weekly updates typically hold few surprises this time of year, but this week’s report proved to be the exception to the rule after the agency bucked analyst expectations by raising its quality ratings for winter wheat by two points to reach 56% in good-to-excellent condition.

But that number may sound better than it actually is, according to Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.

“Our forecast of yields based on the state-by-state ratings, which is weighted differently than USDA’s national conditions, showed virtually no improvement,” he says. “Still, the crop is in better shape than a year ago, with yield potential ranging from 47.7 to 50.6 bushels per acre.”

Winter wheat planting progress reached 93% complete as of November 18, up just four points from the prior week’s tally of 89%. That puts this year’s crop slightly behind 2017’s pace and the five-year average, both at 97%. Crop emergence reached 81%, which is also behind 2017’s pace of 87% and the five-year average of 88%.

Corn harvest reached 90% last week, up from the prior week’s total of 84% and mostly in line with 2017’s pace of 89% and the five-year average of 93%. USDA marked three states – Illinois, North Carolina and Tennessee – as effectively completing their 2018 corn harvests. Elsewhere in the Corn Belt, states including North Dakota (71%), Michigan (74%) and Pennsylvania (76%) still have plenty of harvest progress yet to make.

This year’s soybean harvest is also inching along, moving from 88% complete the prior week to 91% complete as of November 18. The pace remains a bit behind 2017 and the five-year average, both at 96%. Nine of the top 18 production states have progress of at least 90%, with North Carolina (58%) still with the most progress yet to make.

Other crop progress of note includes:

• Sorghum harvest reached 80%, up from 73% the week prior.
• Cotton harvest reached 59%, up from 54% the week prior.
• Peanut harvest reached 86%, up from 81% the week prior

Agriculture has seen its fair share of new startup companies in the last five years. With billions being invested in new ideas, a lot of brainpower is being put toward a range of new ideas. Recently, Farm Progress talked with Kevin Chen, CEO, Crop Enhancement, a venture-capital-funded company based in San Jose, Calif., with a different way to control crop pests: a spray-on barrier that keeps pests out of crops.

“Growers can protect crops by applying a biodegradable and transparent material that keeps pests from eating a crop,” Chen explains. “Our CropCoat product is a foliar-applied spray formulation.” The product is a proprietary mix containing natural ingredients.

Chen added that the physical barrier approach, which overall is not a new idea for crop protection but is novel when deployed in the form of a sprayable product, protects the crop at the point of damage where insects and diseases take hold.

For any ag startup, the aim is to get a foothold in the business through the path that brings the earliest opportunity for higher income. In many cases, that means high-value crops like fruits and vegetables. “We’ve been working with tropical crops and high-value specialty crops,” Chen explains. “The way that a crop such as cocoa or coffee gets damaged is that insects chew through the cocoa pod or coffee cherry and get into the middle of the fruit, where they can live. The problem with these particular crops is that once they’re inside, you can’t do much about them.”

Getting a start
Chen shared the company’s story, noting that Crop Enhancement was founded in late 2011 and in the early stages, tried several different approaches including controlled release fertilizer and other tech. But the company found it needed a more direct way to market. “We didn’t make the fertilizer itself, so it was difficult to get into that market,” he recalls.

The company switched gears and moved ahead with its CropCoat concept, which was created in-house and not licensed from another company. “We formulate the product, we work with partners to field-trial the product and we’re in the process of taking the product to market in 2019,” he says.

A key benefit designed into CropCoat is that it addresses maximum residue level, or MRL, concerns. “Food companies are very wary of crop residues and want little or no residues on their food,” he says. “Buyers are looking at ways to cut down on the amount of residuals on high-value crops.”

Just how does this new product deter the pest from dining on crops? “We’ve started to map out its modes of action on certain pests,” Chen explains, noting the company has been looking at the product’s impact on soft-bodied insects such as mites as well as and the early stages of larger insects including lepidoptera.

“For example, we know a lot about how spider mites get affected. Mites are pests that affect a host of fruits and vegetables,” he adds. “They are impacted in a few ways. At the beginning, when the product is applied, there is a smothering or immobilization mode on the surface of the crop — for example, on the leaves of strawberry plants. If they’re on the surface of the leaf, it will immobilize them in place. As the film dries, any new spider mites that arrive will face the physical film.”

Chen adds that mites who attempt to feed on the crop will instead dine on CropCoat. The material is not acutely toxic to the pest, but it’s also non-nutritive. “It’s like eating junk food, and they can’t make use of the nutrients eaten,” he explains. “We find that survival of mites goes down, and their fecundity declines significantly as well.”

Innovation and the future
Crop Enhancement recently concluded a successful demonstration trial of the product in cocoa with Cargill in Southeast Asia to improve the quality and productivity of that high-value tropical crop. And there’s potential in a range of fruit and vegetable crops, with broad-acre row crops sometime in the future.

“We do see a future in row crops, but we picked our battles on specialty crops where there is not as much focus, or there are bigger budgets for crop protection,” Chen says. “We haven’t spent a lot of time on row crops so far, but we see the value of that market, too.”

For example, lab tests with the tech against fall armyworm show promising signs for the product as part of a rotation of insecticides. “There are no silver bullets in insecticides anymore. Our product could be part of a rotation to help growers manage pest resistance,” he says.

Interested in this new mode of action? You can learn more at crop-enhancement.com.

“I’m a control freak, I guess,” comments Kelly Garrett, an Arion, Iowa, producer. He’s talking about the key reason why he invested in drip irrigation for part of his operation. “Coming out of the drought of 2012, there were too many things that were out of my control.”

He realizes you can’t mitigate all risks, but for 370 acres of his cropland, he took the plunge to install drip tape on several fields that he would rotate between corn and soybeans. Garrett is one of four farmers Farm Progress contacted to discuss drip irrigation and its use in a row crop situation.

Subsurface drip irrigation is technology that gained initial traction in high-value crops in areas with reduced access to water. Israeli producers pioneered the idea of laying durable tape underground where water could be pushed through and percolate through the soil to crop roots.

Today, there’s growing interest in the idea of using drip tape for commodity crops, and it goes beyond providing water to the crop. Fertigation isn’t a new idea for irrigators, but with subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) it’s possible to spoon-feed that crop throughout the season and deliver more than the usual N, P and K.

Taking control
Farmers who install drip in fields often start either with a need for greater control of variables, or they already irrigate with center-pivot or flood systems but have fields that are too oddly shaped. That’s what Perry Galloway had for his operation. He’s in his seventh season with drip. Only a small portion of his 10,000-acre operation has drip irrigation.

“I had a couple of fields that weren’t suited for land leveling for furrow irrigation, or any kind of flood, and they were not shaped for center pivot,” Galloway says. “So, I looked at it as a way to get these oddly shaped fields irrigated.” His Gregory, Ark., operation raises corn and soybeans, and he’s noted for his competition yields. But it’s a small part of his operation, amounting to just 120 acres — though they’re some of his best-producing.

It didn’t start out that way. “We have sandy soils and they drain well; we’re always just a few days from a drought,” he says. “That first field I installed drip in was one I drive by every day. If it didn’t rain, I was looking at a dead field, and I couldn’t take it.”

The first installation was 80 acres; and at the time, the farm economy was good with higher prices. The $2,000-per-acre installation cost was a challenge, but he wanted higher yields. “That first field, if there was no rain, would produce less than 20 bushels per acre for soybeans and sometimes in the single digits,” he says. “I’ve made 100 bushels per acre on that field several times.”

YIELD RECORDS: The big challenge of topping 100 bushels per acre of soybeans is more realistic when the crop is spoon-fed nutrients and water throughout the growing season through a drip system.

Unlikely irrigation spot
Northern Illinois has its share of center-pivot systems, but in 2015, Dan Luepkes pioneered the use of SDI and laid in his first system. It was 100 acres, and in the second year he added another 100 acres. “We had planned for that with one controller and filter station supporting both fields,” the Oregon, Ill., producer says. “The reason I did it was because we have sandy ground and we use center-pivot irrigation. But for this farm, there was no pivot that would work on it because it was too irregular.”

And he’s pleased with his results. “We’ve turned one of my least productive fields into one of my most productive with drip. It’s been a good thing for me,” he says.

The key for these installations is the precision fertigation, which has gotten more targeted and easier to manage with the tech and tools offered by suppliers. But Luepkes doesn’t rely solely on the SDI system for his fertilizer program.

“We continue our upfront, intense, planter-applied nutrient program with row-applied nitrogen on the planter,” he says. “Then we top it off with the drip midseason.”

He has his lines laid in on 60-inch centers, and that early season fertilizer program is key to getting the crop off to a good start, including root development. “When the root masses get bigger, they can reach out to get to the drip lines by midseason — and we deliver nutrients through the lines.”

He explained that his farm sees that later-season applied nutrients are giving his crop a bigger boost, including delivering nitrogen and boron at tassel for corn. And what he’s learned from those drip lines he’s now putting to work through his center pivot, too. Later-applied nutrients can make a difference.

Luepkes has not only seen a yield bump, but also sees his name appearing consistently on yield contest charts as a top producer in Illinois, and nationally.

Installation and management
Drip irrigation tech has evolved. For Garrett in Iowa, who wanted more control, there was a challenge for his installation. “Most said I was crazy to install drip with my hills,” he says. “We turned to pressure-compensating tape, which was some extra expense, but it worked to counter the hills.”

And the tech keeps evolving. A common theme in talking with farmers using SDI is the need for higher management.

Management challenge
Galloway in Arkansas notes that he couldn’t manage his whole farm on the same level he manages his SDI ground. Yet the value produced on that single field, in a tough location, offered benefits.

For Kevin Matthews, who farms near Yadkinville, N.C., the SDI installation has been at work for seven years — and he’s been fine-tuning management ever since.

While farmers may hear about the big yield bump from SDI, Matthews cautions that you shouldn’t “expect the first year to blow the top off. You have to learn the system, when to water and when not to water. You can water too much,” he says.

The key knowledge is knowing your soil types and setting your watering zones in the SDI system by that information. “And set realistic yield goals,” he cautions. “The drip takes a little more management, and the key to success is in the design of the system. You have to work with a reputable dealer with specialists that understand how these systems work.”

Matthews, Galloway, Luepkes and Garrett are all boosting yields in their operations on fields where SDI has been installed. Farmers looking at ways to turn losing fields into winners may want to consider the potential of this technology for the future.

Considering SDI? Check these tips
Subsurface drip irrigation is a relatively new idea for row crop use. However, the concept isn’t that new. Kansas State University has done its share of work on the concept, including use of subsurface lines in fields that have been at work for more than two decades. If you’re considering the idea of installing an SDI system, here are some tips gleaned from Galloway, Matthews, Luepkes and Garrett.

• Have water available. No irrigation system works without available water. That sounds like common sense, but it’s critical to know your resources. Luepkes in Illinois notes that many farmers don’t have the water. Even in his case it was a challenge, which he solved by damming a small creek on his operation. Even though it created a 2-million-gallon reservoir, he’s been known to run it dry with his SDI system.

• Plan on added management. These operations have learned over time how to fine-tune their water and nutrient application through the drip. Matthews from North Carolina noted that SDI users will find they have more “depth” with the system because it can be more precise than pivots. “You can manage those zones and it gets easier,” he says. “But your dealer should know how to set zones up for different soil types.”

The lines need maintenance including cleaning. The filtration system will keep sand out, though plugging can happen — even with the nutrients you push into the system. Varmints have not been a big issue, but Iowa farmer Garrett said leaks are a big issue, admitting in his first year he probably caused more leaks through his early use than he’s seen since.

• Installation cost versus payback. Every one of these growers says the payback ranges from five to seven years, though timing can be an issue. For example, if you installed a drip system in 2011 ahead of the 2012 drought and saw a high yield even in the face of dry weather, the payback is accelerated. But Luepkes looks at the bigger picture on payback and value. “I try to make the point that you can have 100% return in the first year in one aspect — the asset,” he says. He notes that land that was worth $5,000 per acre dry after spending $2,000 per acre for the SDI installation is now work $10,000 per acre due to the installation and the higher proven yield on that ground. He says he doesn’t want to sell the farm, but it is a 100% payback in asset value.

The financial aspect is a challenge. Many bankers may not see value in the initial cost of the SDI installation, which can be higher than a center-pivot system. First-time installers all financed their systems creatively through operating loans or their own money. Savvy bankers are more up to speed once they see those yields; but if you’re in an area with little SDI, prepare to educate your banker.

• The dealer matters. One theme that came through from all four farmers is that a bad installation can be a real problem. From managing zones by soil type to helping set up the system for pressure, filtration and maintenance, a knowledgeable dealer is valuable. Netafim is the key supplier for these four farmers, who have seen solid success with their systems, and they offer uniform praise. For farmers seeking drip installation dealers, check references and talk with farmers they’ve worked with to learn about those installations before writing that first check.

The four operations featured here have a range of drip installations, from 60-inch centers to on-row systems. Some buried are 9 inches deep, others deeper. Part is determined by soil percolation rates and part by your farming practices. If tillage is part of your annual crop management, lines may be deeper; no tillers may have lines closer to the surface.

By Farm Progress staff

Plenty of companies are striving to “build a better mousetrap” when it comes to hardware or software that will help you do a better job of planting and applying fertilizer. Planter technology is evolving, and the race is on among companies to see who can come up with better solutions for everything from clearing a path for seed openers to closing the trench as cleanly and consistently as possible.

The result is a constantly flowing stream of new products that someone hopes might seem like the answer to getting better stands in your fields than you do now. More and more people seem to recognize that the planting trip is the money trip today.

Martin-Till has a new row cleaner that it believes does a superior job in many conditions. Ag Systems introduced a new large-capacity tender to get product to the field. These are just two of the new offerings you can evaluate before next season.

Others include a depth-control system from Kinze and a completely different way to achieve the goal of proper planting depth from Graham. Use the contact information provided with the descriptions of these products to learn more.

LDM brings a possible solution for those worried that extra weight on the planter, especially on central-fill planters, may cause soil compaction that could impact center rows more than others. Its solution helps redistribute weight across the planter.

Look carefully at all the new products offered in the slideshow below. 

Why are global equity and commodity markets currently so dismal? Global growth is decelerating, and this trend may be problematic well into the first half of 2019.

 Recession? No, a U.S. or global recession is not imminent, but a highly contentious and magnified period of global policy and market realignment is underway. Interestingly, this period could be supportive of some commodity prices with money rotating out of global equities into certain commodities. Also, are near term Chinese concessions related to U.S. soybeans possible? No one knows, but the answer likely emerges in the next one to two weeks.  

If U.S. and global economic activity is going to be stimulus driven, global currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets will continually undergo some form of realignment. What is different about today’s realignment? The current realignment phase is exceptionally harsh, due to Chinese and Russian economic and military aggression, Middle East instability, and European Union’s economic paralysis, to only list a few.

Today’s global equity and commodity price weakness is a primary function of ongoing fiscal, monetary, trade, and regulatory disputes. The U.S. President and Congress are in negotiations with world leaders to enhance global parameters surrounding global economic and legal issues and put limits on military aggression.

Important Factors

•  Synchronized Global Growth. A huge positive, but Global Governments and Central Banks, though they have self-serving differences, remain committed to managing global economic growth at a level that avoids a serious recession or depression.
• When is the next most likely major recession? Opinions vary from one to five years. I presently do not expect the next major recession, plus or minus a year, until around 2023, but mini-corrections, like we are currently experiencing, between now and the next major recession may become the norm.
• Marketing Requires Assistance from Professional Experts. Global markets are fluid, dynamic and require constant monitoring, so strong relationships with one’s marketing firm (s) and advisor (s) is a must. Since no one can predict market outcomes with certainty, all market participants and analysts are in a continual analytical mode and refining their expectations, outlook, and marketing strategies.
• Global Government Partnership. The economic partnership between global governments is one of absolute necessity. That said, currently, the relationship between governments is extremely turbulent and unstable, which lead to fears of a looming recession.
• Why not allow a global economic reset by way of a recession and avoid the ongoing massive stimulative global activities? The world’s economies are debt burdened to the extent a near term recession would be extremely dangerous with a highly uncertain outcome. Ultimately, global governments continue to partner and avoid a major global economic downturn, because a global recession today could spiral into a depression or worse.    
• Mini Corrections. The current U.S. business cycle is the second longest in history, and if U.S. and global growth is going to be extended through continuous stimulus driven global growth activities, global currency, bond, equity and commodity markets must be continually realigned to avoid asset bubbles and disproportionate economic burdens between countries, as well as allow for the orderly maintenance of economic momentum and financial stability. 

Market expectations for the week of November 26, 2018  

 U.S. 10-Year Treasury. Yield Sideways to Down – Near term anemic global growth and accompanying deflationary forces have weakened the 10-year bond yield. This market is presently defining an intermediate trading range likely between yields of 2.70 to 3.32. The near-term yield trend is sideways with a lower yield bias. (November 23, 2018 – 3.05) Charts (A1-A4)

 U.S. Dollar. Corrective Pullback Desirable (Not Required) Before Moving Higher – The dollar likely has more strength than weakness until global deflationary forces are offset by significant amounts of global stimulus, which is to say, expect more strength than weakness in the dollar into possibly mid-year 2019. (November 23, 2018 – 96.82) (Possible Upside 110) Charts (A5-A13)

$SPX 500. Sideways Trading Range being defined, Cautionary Times – The index needs to hold above 2537 or additional price weakness becomes problematic. The headwinds are the global slowdown and building deflationary forces. On the positive side, seasonality and global demand are working in favor of this market. Charts (A14-A18)

Global Equities. Sideways, Caution Period of Individual Country Selection – Near term ongoing policy discussions between the U.S. and its economic and trading partners likely limit upside potential of many of these markets. The Global Equity Index (EFA), Emerging Markets (EEM), and Frontier Markets (FM) mostly sideways with downside bias over the next several weeks. The strongest and most stable index will likely be the global index, followed by the emerging market index, and the frontier index will likely be the weakest index over the next several weeks. Charts (A19-A29)

$WTIC Oil. Bearish, Bottom May Not Be In-Place - $WTIC oil prices need to hold above $48.13 or significantly lower prices may emerge. Political dynamics and fundamental crosscurrents are challenging, JUST FOLLOW THE PRICE ACTION. (November 16, 2018 - $56.68), Charts (B6-B9)

Soybeans. Sideways, Retesting Resistance, Defining Trading Parameters - Soybeans (November 23, 2018 - $8.81 per bushel) to-date have not been able to overcome heavy resistance. Until soybean prices close and hold above $9.07 per bushel, I remain more concerned about the downside to $8.12. Charts (B10-B13)

Corn. Neutral to Bearish - This market needs to end the week of November 26, 2018 above $3.64 per bushel for me to consider any additional near-term upside. (November 23, 2018 - $3.59 per bushel). Charts (B14-B17)

Wheat. Sideways to up in a Very Slowly Unfolding Pattern - Wheat prices need to end the week of November 26, 2018 above $5.05 per bushel to indicate a stronger bearish trend is not gaining momentum. (November 23, 2018 - $5.09 per bushel) Charts (B14-B17)

Long Grain Rice. Sideways to Up – January rice holding above $10.76 per cwt. would be positive for potential additional upside price strength to $11.27. That said, global deflationary forces coupled with fundamentals continue to weigh heavily on this market without significant new business. (Chart B18-B20)

Cotton. Bearish, Global Deflation Forces Weighing Heavy Cotton Prices - Key consideration: If cotton can finish the week of November 26, 2018 above December 77.86 cents per pound, this market still has potential to regain upside price momentum, given today’s global economic setting. Finishing the week of November 26, 2018 below 77.86 cents per pound would likely indicate potential serious price weakness lies ahead (November 23 – 77.22 cents per pound). Charts (B21-B24)   

Livestock. Primary Trend is up in Lean Hogs, Feeder Cattle, and Live Cattle  

Gold and Silver. Neutral to Potentially Bullish - Gold and silver could find some near-term price support, especially if the dollar continues to correct its upside move.  

 Dr. John Robinson Cotton Video

Cotton Market and Risk Management (including insurance and policy thoughts) Outlook Video with Dr. John Robinson, Professor and Extension Economist - Cotton Marketing, Recorded November 15, 2018 Link to view: click or cut and paste https://bit.ly/2Tovd0D

 Bobby Coats is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas System, Division of Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service. E-mail: recoats@uark.edu.

 Download Slide Show for charts and expanded details, Click Download Link

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As another week passes, the U.S. corn and soybean harvests inch toward completion, with southern row crops also making some inroads, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report, which covers progress through November 25. The 2018/19 winter wheat crop is nearly planted, meantime, with the pace of emergence not far behind.

Corn harvest reached 94% completion last week, up from 90% the prior week. This year’s pace matches 2017’s pace exactly but remains slightly behind the five-year average of 96%. USDA has marked four of the top 18 production states as effectively complete, including Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Tennessee. Harvest progress for the rest of the top 18 production states are all at least 80% complete at this time.

“Snow didn’t slow corn combines too much in the Dakotas, where farmers made some progress but still remain well behind average,” according to Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “Wet conditions in Arkansas, Missouri and Kentucky have soybean harvest lagging by double digits, suggesting losses are likely when USDA updates production estimates Jan. 11.”

Soybean harvest also reached 94% completion last week, up from 91% the prior week. This year’s pace remains a bit behind 2017’s pace of 99% and a five-year average of 98%. Illinois and South Dakota lead the way at 100% completion. Each of the other top 18 production states are at least 83% complete, except for North Dakota (64%).

Winter wheat planting made incremental progress last week, moving from 93% complete the prior week to 95% complete as of November 25. That’s slightly behind 2017’s pace and the five-year average, both at 99%. Another 86% of the crop is emerged, also moderately behind 2017 (91%) and the five-year average (92%).

Winter wheat crop condition slipped a point, moving from 56% in good-to-excellent condition the week prior down to 55%. Analysts had expected USDA to leave quality ratings unchanged this week. Another 33% of the crop is rated fair (down a point from the week prior), with the remaining 13% rated poor or very poor (up two points from the week prior).

“Winter wheat ratings slipped last week as USDA put out its final Crop Progress report of the season,” Knorr says. “Though average yield potential fell only one or two tenths of a bushel nationwide, results were mixed regionally. All of the states growing soft red winter wheat included in the report experienced lower ratings. Wet conditions that delayed seeding were a factor.”

Though hard red winter wheat conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma improved, Knorr says planting is likely over after an early start to winter, including widespread snow in Kansas.

“Our models project yield potential ranging from 47.5 to 50.5 bushels per acre nationwide.,” he says.

Other crop progress of note includes:

• Sorghum harvest reached 89%, up from 80% the week prior.
• Cotton harvest reached 70%, up from 59% the week prior.
• Peanut harvest reached 91%, up from 86% the week prior.

A new aboveground nitrogen stabilizer is being launched by Corteva Agriscience, the ag division of DowDuPont. Available for spring nitrogen application, the product, named PinnitMax, prevents volatilization loss of urea and UAN applications made to the soil surface. It can be mixed with liquid nitrogen or impregnated onto dry urea nitrogen fertilizer granules before application.

“PinnitMax helps ensure urea and UAN applications get into the root zone,” says Tina Troester, nitrogen management specialist for Corteva. “PinnitMax also addresses the need for better handling with aboveground nitrogen stabilizers. There are other urease inhibitor products on the market and some of the most popular products in this category can be difficult to handle. We are providing a new solution that’s user-friendly, powerful and rounds out the nitrogen maximizer portfolio for comprehensive protection of any nitrogen source used above- and belowground.”

PinnitMax joins N-Serve and Instinct nitrogen stabilizers available from Corteva Agriscience. All types of nitrogen fertilizer can be protected with this portfolio: PinnitMax for aboveground urea and UAN applications, N-Serve for belowground anhydrous ammonia applications, and Instinct for belowground urea, UAN and manure applications.

How stabilizer works
PinnitMax prevents volatilization of urea and UAN applications for up to 14 days, helping ensure the nitrogen gets to the roots for optimum crop uptake, Troester says.

The product offers farmers and fertilizer retailers specific advantages, thanks to its unique formulation, including:

• the most powerful, gallon-for-gallon, aboveground urease inhibitor with an ultra-low use rate

• simple blending, free-flowing applications and effortless cleanup, freeing up labor and processing time for a more efficient operation

• the active ingredient NBPT (n-butyl thiophosphoric triamide)

“This new addition to the Corteva nitrogen maximizers portfolio features the technology to protect any nitrogen fertilizer used, helping farmers to fully realize yield potential,” Troester says. “Farmers and retailers can now customize their season-long nitrogen management. PinnitMax works aboveground to help get your nitrogen to the root zone, while N-Serve and Instinct technology work belowground to keep it there.”

Trend to split N application
With more farmers making split applications of nitrogen for corn, this product will fit well for both sidedress and broadcast-applied N, Troester notes. Or if you dribble urea or UAN on the soil surface as a sidedress-topdress application between corn rows, the new stabilizer works well also. With more no-till acres, there’s increasing use of liquid UAN with herbicide added and the tankmix applied to supply N and control weeds on the same pass through the field.

Most of the time fertilizer dealers will be using PinnitMax, either impregnating it onto dry urea fertilizer, or mixing it with liquid UAN and applying the stabilized nitrogen to farmers’ fields. Some farmers have the capability to treat their own acres, such as sidedressing corn with liquid N. Farmers can use PinnitMax themselves, mixing it with UAN.

PinnitMax will be priced competitively with other N stabilizers on the market. Fertilizer dealers will set the price they charge. Available for spring applications in the U.S., PinnitMax will be rolled out to other geographies in the next few years. For more information, visit pinnitmaxstabilizer.com or contact a Corteva Agriscience sales representative.

When farmers write the check, take delivery and start filling planter hoppers during planting in 2019, how many will consider the background technology involved? The seed industry has undergone a significant change in the past 25 years, and while that corn or soybean seed may look familiar, its development history is far different from what it was a few years ago.

Farm Progress got a look at what Syngenta is doing in seed breeding as the company ramps up its efforts to grow market share in a competitive industry. Two years ago, the company committed $400 million to a five-year effort to re-establish itself in the seed business, but long before that the company was investing in high-tech tools to advance in the market.

“We have a track record with genetically modified traits,” said Ian Jepsen, who heads up research and development for traits at Syngenta’s Research Triangle Park facility in North Carolina. “We had the first trait in the corn market, BT176, in 1995.” That was soon followed up by Agrisure traits — and in more recent years, the development of Viptera, Duracade and Enogen. For Syngenta, BT176 was marketed as NKBT and was one of the more popular versions of the aboveground insect control trait on the market.

Farmers are familiar with how genetic tools have added new features to crops to fend off insects and provide enhanced herbicide options. But these days, that’s what the industry calls “table stakes” to play. Today’s plant breeder has a lot more tools available for taking on key challenges, and not all of them involved work in the greenhouse.

Turning to analytics
Laura Potter, Syngenta’s global head of computational biology, joked that when she was in college getting her degree in mathematics, her father told her she would never get a real job. “No one knew how important math and analytics for agriculture would be,” she said. She works with the company’s team of geneticists, genomicists and analysts as they develop the breeding pipeline for growers.

The overall goal, and challenge, for plant breeders is increasing yield, which is a complex trait. “We want to focus on yield stability, and we look at an array of all the different environments farmers have faced in years past,” she said. “And we want to look at what the weather will be like next year. The grower faces this every time they plant.”

When talking about analyzing the environment, Potter shared the wide range of factors involved in analyzing opportunities. She did share one factor that farmers can control that could provide a stable base. “Weather and pest pressures come and go. Soil is the greatest asset a grower has, and it can be fairly stable,” she noted. “Making sure the soil is healthy and preserving that over time can contribute to yield. This is a major player in the crop performance they see.”

Where does analytics come in? Potter and her team are looking at pretty much every variable in a crop field and developing tools that can help farmers pick the right genetics for their situation. “We understand these problems, and we’re digging into the science and the data with all our global capabilities to help create a stable return on investment,” she said.

Pulling all that information together into a single tool is not easy task; but for 2019, farmer-customers of Golden Harvest, a Syngenta brand, may see some fruits of the labor. The company has developed E-Luminate, a tool that can analyze where to place specific hybrids for best returns.

Seed tool and Netflix
The company has pulled all the key trait information together with field information, including weather history, into a tool that can help farmers pinpoint hybrid choices for their farms. Potter likens the analytics to how Netflix works.

“[Netflix has] all the information about all members, and everything every member has watched. It’s a strange mix from ‘Sponge Bob’ to ‘Star Trek.’ They rate shows, and there are tags with information about which viewers watch what,” she explained. “They use an advanced analytics engine that develops a personalized mix of movies to suggest for users. There is a data analytics engine behind it, and we are doing the same in plant breeding.”

She added that a plant breeder has only a certain number of locations and years, and the key is to pick winners that will perform in different environments. Essentially, there are three steps to development.

Descriptive analytics looks at what happened, and which hybrids performed best in last year’s trials.

Predictive analytics looks at what will happen, and aims to determine which hybrids will be winners in this year’s trails.

And finally, there is prescriptive analytics, which takes in a great deal of information and helps determine which hybrids will provide consistent yields for a specific grower over the next two to three years.

The E-Luminate tool will offer hybrid choices for a specific field, or farm, providing farmers the opportunity to choose — but the tool even has an “easy button” that would provide a balanced, choice set of hybrids for the farm. Farmers would access that tool through their Golden Harvest seed adviser.

Hybrid selection is getting more complicated. These analytics tools offer farmers a way to cut through the clutter and find what will work on the farm. The application of data analytics on this level provides an added layer of confidence when selecting seed for the next season. And it changes the buying dialog as a seed representative offers you choices.

You can learn more at goldenharvestseeds.com.